Generally, bets can be considered odds-on or odds-against, which again sounds complex but is very simple to understand when you get your head around.<\/p>\n
Odds-On Definition<\/h2>\n
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When the bookies believe something is very likely to happen, they will make their odds so short that each punter that places a winning bet on that outcome will only make a small fraction of their stake as profit.<\/p>\n
This would be an odds on bet, and the easiest visual clue is where the number on the left of the fraction is smaller than the number on the right \u2013 prices like 1\/6, 1\/2, 4\/5, 8\/11 and so on are all examples of odds-on betting.<\/p>\n
If you placed a bet on a horse at 1\/10 and it won, you would win \u00a31 for every \u00a310 placed. Not always the most profitable venture in the long run\u2026<\/p>\n
To help you understand further, an odds-against bet is one from which you will more than double your money if your selection wins. For instance, a winning \u00a310 wager at odds of 3\/1 will return \u00a340 \u2013 your stake back and \u00a330 earnings on top.<\/p>\n
The secret to successful sports betting, whether you take an odds-on price or odds against, is to only wager on outcomes you believe have a greater chance of occurring than the odds given by the bookmakers.<\/p>\n
How are Betting Odds Decided?<\/h2>\n
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Bookmakers employ some of the sharpest analytical minds and the latest software tools to model how they think a sporting contest will play out.<\/p>\n
For the most popular betting heats, they will even run thousands of simulations to see what the true likelihood of each outcome occurring is, before setting their odds accordingly \u2013 their prices reflect the \u2018implied probability\u2019 of a football team scoring, for example, or a racehorse winning.<\/p>\n
The shorter the odds, the higher the probability of the thing happening \u2013 that\u2019s the golden rule.<\/p>\n
Naturally, odds-on selections have a higher probability of occurring. A 1\/10 shot, for instance, has an implied probability of around 91%. In contrast, a 10\/1 chance is given a probability of just 9%.<\/p>\n
It should be noted at this point that odds can change. Sometimes a selection will drift in price, i.e. its odds grow longer and therefore so too does the implied probability of it happening. The opposite is true when the odds shorten.<\/p>\n
There are numerous reasons that odds change before the game\/race\/tournament starts, whether its changing conditions (maybe a heavy downpour has changed a racecourse\u2019s going) or previously unknown information, such as when football team sheets are revealed an hour or so before kick-off \u2013 key players being rested by their manager will usually see that team\u2019s odds lengthen.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, the weight of money that comes in for a particular betting market will inform how the odds change over time.<\/p>\n
Do Odds On Bets Always Win?<\/h2>\n
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We know that odds-on bets have a greater chance of landing because their implied probability tells us as much.<\/p>\n
But the reason that hundreds of millions of people watch sport around the world is that it\u2019s often unpredictable and surprise results happen \u2013 those greatly undermine the theory of implied probability, although over a long-term period more odds-on bets win than lose.<\/p>\n
Before you go off and bet on odds-on shots blindly, it\u2019s worth remembering that making money with shorter odds selections can be difficult. If you backed ten 1\/10 shots, you\u2019d need all of them to win (at level stakes) to realise a profit. Given that 1\/10 bets win on 91% of occasions, according to the law of probability, you can see that you\u2019re already chasing your tail on that front.<\/p>\n
And you\u2019d be surprised how often odds-on chances don\u2019t oblige in any sport of your choosing\u2026<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s a look at the odds-on teams in a Premier League game week:<\/p>\n
| Team<\/th>\n | Odds<\/th>\n | Did They Win?<\/th>\n | Profit\/Loss (\u00a310 stake)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool<\/td>\n | 1\/2<\/td>\n | N<\/td>\n | -10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Tottenham<\/td>\n | 4\/9<\/td>\n | Y<\/td>\n | 4.44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Chelsea<\/td>\n | 9\/10<\/td>\n | Y<\/td>\n | 9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Brighton<\/td>\n | 21\/25<\/td>\n | N<\/td>\n | -10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Man City<\/td>\n | 1\/3<\/td>\n | Y<\/td>\n | 3.33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Man Utd<\/td>\n | 7\/25<\/td>\n | N<\/td>\n | -10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Arsenal<\/td>\n | 11\/25<\/td>\n | Y<\/td>\n | 4.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| Newcastle<\/td>\n | 16\/25<\/td>\n | Y<\/td>\n | 6.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n |
| –<\/td>\n | –<\/td>\n | Total<\/strong><\/td>\n| -\u00a32.43<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n | By betting on these eight odds-on teams, you would have enjoyed a healthy win ratio of 62.5% – excellent by any measure.<\/p>\n But look at the monetary outcome of betting on those games with \u00a310 level stakes: you\u2019d have actually lost money despite winning nearly two-thirds of your bets.<\/p>\n And that explains clearly the myth that odds-on bets always win\u2026 or that they are profitable in the long run, anyway.<\/p>\n The Worst Odds On Losses of All Time<\/h2>\n
In 2018, a horse named Tree of Liberty left punters weeping like a willow when he lost a race<\/a> at Ludlow priced at 1\/20 \u2013 an implied win probability of some 95.2%.<\/p>\n Another that immediately springs to mind was Mike Tyson\u2019s defeat to Buster Douglas in 1990. Tyson, the so-called \u2018Baddest Man on the Planet\u2019, had won his prior 37 fights \u2013 33 via knockout. Douglas was a cherry-picked opponent designed to allow Iron Mike to showcase his ferocious skills in front of a packed Tokyo crowd.<\/p>\n But Buster had other ideas, knocking out the champion<\/a> in the tenth round as a 42\/1 underdog. Tyson, meanwhile, was priced at 1\/27… an implied probability of 96.4%. Ouch!<\/p>\n |
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There have been some staggering odds-on losses in sporting history.<\/p>\n