{"id":1888,"date":"2023-03-31T15:36:46","date_gmt":"2023-03-31T15:36:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.top10bettingsites.co.uk\/?page_id=1888"},"modified":"2023-03-31T15:36:46","modified_gmt":"2023-03-31T15:36:46","slug":"is-it-better-to-bet-on-a-long-shot-or-a-favourite","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/horse-racing\/is-it-better-to-bet-on-a-long-shot-or-a-favourite\/","title":{"rendered":"Is it Better to Bet On a Long Shot or a Favourite?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"LongshotWhen Kenny Rogers sang about knowing when to hold \u2018em and when to fold \u2018em, he was referring to the percentage play in poker: which hands should you look to maximise your position from and which should you walk away from altogether.<\/p>\n

There are interesting parallels between \u2018The Gambler\u2019 and betting on sports, because the key to long-term success when punting on football, horse racing or any other sport is knowing when you find yourself in a value position and when you don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

There are three possible outcomes in a football match, and the bookmakers price up each in a way that a) protects their bottom line and b) enables them to build in a profit margin. Their odds are also determined by a desire not to over-expose themselves should a favourite hose up and win comfortably.<\/p>\n

In horse racing, there\u2019s only one possible winner, and while due care and attention is paid when pricing up the market to avoid laying too many each way punts, again the object is to protect and benefit.<\/p>\n

Once you understand this ambition, you get a better handle on whether to bet on favourites, outsiders or another selection. The object is to bet on outcomes you believe have a greater chance of winning than their odds imply \u2013 no matter what their status in the market.<\/p>\n

Betting on Favourites<\/h2>\n

\"Horse<\/p>\n

In theory, betting on favourites is the way to go \u2013 logic dictates that this team, horse or player are the more likely victor because a) the bookies\u2019 analysts have determined so and b) the weight of betting money coming in has confirmed the fact.<\/p>\n

But how often do the odds you take on a favourite reflect their actual probability of winning? How much have the bookies skewed their margin in order to protect themselves from a heavy loss?<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a look at the results of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival as a guide. Let\u2019s say you had decided to bet on every favourite, with win only wagers placed on those 3\/1 or shorter and each way punts for those at longer prices. Let\u2019s go with \u00a310 stakes for each (\u00a35 e\/w).<\/p>\n

After day one, here\u2019s your position:<\/p>\n