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If you were to take on the character of a wise old betting owl, offering advice and guidance to newcomers to football punting in particular, there\u2019s a chance you would steer them well clear of correct score betting.<\/p>\nIf you were to take on the character of a wise old betting owl, offering advice and guidance to newcomers to football punting in particular, there\u2019s a chance you would steer them well clear of correct score betting.<\/p>\n
“There\u2019s too much variance”, you\u2019d cry, with \u2013 conservatively \u2013 at least eight possible outcomes in any given game. And that\u2019s when the match pans out roughly as expected\u2026.<\/p>\n
However, when you glance at the results of any given set of football results and their accompanying correct score odds, it\u2019s difficult not to develop an interest in punting in this way.<\/p>\n
Exhibit A: Gameweek 16 of the 2023\/24 Premier League season\u2026.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a lot to drink in there, but the most interesting takeaway is that of all those final scores, only two were \u2018predictable\u2019 as far as the match odds and the form of the teams are concerned \u2013 Liverpool\u2019s win at Crystal Palace and the draw between Wolves and Nottingham Forest.<\/p>\n
Otherwise Brentford, Brighton and Manchester United were favourites that all failed to oblige, Arsenal and Chelsea were odds-against favourites that went on to lose, Man City were expected to thrash Luton, Tottenham were narrowly favoured against Newcastle and won by a three-goal margin and Fulham… well, odds of 125\/1 are indicative of the likelihood of them beating West Ham 5-0.<\/p>\n
Although a small sample, it\u2019s fascinating that 8\/10 Premier League games in that particular weekend did NOT go in anything like the manner they were expected to \u2013 good news for punters seeking a high risk, high reward betting market.<\/p>\n
Because that\u2019s what correct score betting is: a low probability way of trying to win at big prices. But if the 2023\/24 Premier League season has taught us anything, it\u2019s that wagering against the grain can be a useful strategy.<\/p>\n
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Every country is different as far as their language, culture and politics is concerned, and the manner of their domestic football leagues is different from one nation to the next too \u2013 from the goal bonanza of the German Bundesliga to the conservative, risk-averse stylings of the Bulgarian Parva Liga.<\/p>\n
Knowing a thing or two about the leagues your punting on is page one, paragraph one of the betting handbook, but for correct score punters it\u2019s vital to understand the underlying culture of the division.<\/p>\n
For example, in 2023\/24 the Premier League underwent yet another unconscious revolution \u2013 a penchant for goals<\/a>, and lots of them. After 16 rounds of games, the average tally per game was 3.12; by far and away the highest the EPL has seen in the majority of its seasons.<\/p>\n This is important information, because it reveals a theory that even after a team has taken the lead, they aren\u2019t sitting back and trying to defend their supremacy \u2013 they want to score again to frank their superiority.<\/p>\n In the 2018\/19 season, the most common final scores<\/a> in the Premier League were 2-0 (12%), 1-2 (9%) and 1-1 (8%). During 2023\/24 so far and at the time of writing, that had changed so that six scorelines had been recorded 8% or more: 2-1, 1-2 and even 3-1 amongst them.<\/p>\n So while the cautionary tale is to expect the unexpected when it comes to betting on final scores, we do at least know that the 2023\/24 Premier League has a culture and expectation of goals \u2013 that\u2019s information we can use in our bets.<\/p>\n Some might, lured by those 125\/1 prices, but at face value that would have been a final scoreline that really did lack any credibility.<\/p>\n Until, that is, you take a look at the deeper underlying numbers\u2026 and some other information that would have come in handy.<\/p>\nTaking a Deep Dive<\/h2>\n
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Would anyone have backed Fulham to beat West Ham 5-0?<\/p>\n
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Nobody can say that correct score betting is easy or predictable \u2013 the stats, and their remarkable variance, speak for themselves.<\/p>\n