And that\u2019s excellent news for punters seeking late goals.<\/p>\n
Late in the Day<\/h2>\n
![\"Betting](\"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/betting-on-late-goals-765px.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
To set the scene, here\u2019s the timing splits for all goals scored in the 2023\/24 Premier League after 21 weeks of action:<\/p>\n
- \n
- 0-15 minutes \u2013 11.1%<\/li>\n
- 16-30 minutes \u2013 15%<\/li>\n
- 31-45 minutes \u2013 14%<\/li>\n
- 46-60 minutes \u2013 16.4%<\/li>\n
- 61-75 minutes \u2013 17.4%<\/li>\n
- 76-90 minutes \u2013 26.1%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
As you can see, the latest of the 15 minute sections is by far and away the most goal-heavy, and while there\u2019s good reason for that \u2013 with all of the added time being played nowadays, it very rarely lasts just 15 minutes, for starters \u2013 it still confirms one of football\u2019s oldest concepts: a losing team will try to nick an equaliser late on, rather than risking too much, too early.<\/p>\n
In some cases, a side chasing a goal will get one \u2013 in others, they will leave themselves exposed to a counter attack, or throw too many bodies forward for a late set piece and then be cruelly picked off on the break.<\/p>\n
That game state, as we\u2019ve mentioned in a previous article, is vital to determining when goals will be scored (and how many), and so too is motivation: teams will throw the kitchen sink at trying to score a late equaliser in a cup tie, while there\u2019s league games in which a draw is no good to either side if they are challenging for silverware, a high finish, or battling relegation.<\/p>\n
But there\u2019s no doubt that more injury time means more late goals \u2013 that\u2019s just numerical logic. For more context, here\u2019s the percentage of total goals scored in that 76-90th minute quadrant season upon season in the Premier League.<\/p>\n
![\"Late](\"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/late-goals-premier-league-seasons-765px.jpg\")
Late Goals in Premier League Seasons<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Although not an upward curve, the spike for 2023\/24 compared to seasons gone by clearly shows that more late goals are being scored in the Premier League now than ever before \u2013 and you can bet your bottom dollar that trend will follow in many other divisions around the world too.<\/p>\n
Making It Count<\/h2>\n
![\"Celebrating](\"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/celebrating-a-late-goal-765px.jpg\")
<\/p>\nSo what does this all mean for punters? Well, before you go out and start blindly betting on late goals being scored left, right and centre, it\u2019s important to note that just because 26% of Premier League goals are scored after the 75th minute, that\u2019s not to say that there\u2019s a 26% chance of a goal being scored.<\/p>\n
As already alluded to, game state really can be the key factor that decides whether a late goal may or may not be scored. As smart punters, there are some scenarios that we can completely dismiss from our late goal thinking: where one of the teams is winning by two goals or more, for example. The losing team won\u2019t exhaust themselves chasing a goal because they will still be adrift on the scoreline, while it\u2019s unlikely the team in the lead will be throwing bodies forward in an attempt to notch another goal.<\/p>\n
There are so few cases where two teams that are drawing MUST win \u2013 only towards the end of the season does that have the potential to happen. More likely is that both sides will simply play out the draw, take the point and move on to the next game.<\/p>\n
So with this process of elimination, as you scan through the in-play channel of your chosen bookmaker, you can discard all of the games that don\u2019t satisfy the criteria above.<\/p>\n
Then you\u2019ll be left with just matches where there\u2019s a one-goal difference between the teams and, in theory at least, the losing side will be trying hard to score an equaliser. But the quest for late goal betting value doesn\u2019t end there.<\/p>\n
We have two other questions to answer: does the losing team have the quality \u2013 or at least a viable route to goal \u2013 to score? And does the leading team have the players to score on the counter attack?<\/p>\n
Doing Your Homework<\/h2>\n
![\"Football](\"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/football-betting-research-765px.jpg\")
<\/p>\nWhenever you read about betting strategies for any sport, usually the takeaway point is to do your research on whatever events you plan to bet on \u2013 or at least it should be.<\/p>\n
Nobody can predict what will happen in a football game \u2013 how can they? But by knowing the teams and players involved in a match, their recent form, players missing, head-to-head records and all the rest of it, you can increase your chance of at least having some idea on how the action might pan out.<\/p>\n
This pre-game research can pay dividends in the last quadrant of matches where you have previously identified factors of interest. For example, you might have a quality attacking outfit that finds itself a goal down with 20 minutes to go against a side with a typically porous defence that is low on confidence.<\/p>\n
You can be sure in this scenario that the defending team will put eleven bodies behind the ball and hope to beg, borrow and steal their way to victory \u2013 shouldn\u2019t the attacking team have the class to break them down?<\/p>\n
Sometimes a team losing late on may be lacking in quality but have another useful weapon: a battering ram of a striker and\/or a tall defender thrown up front that they can toss high balls up to. These route one shenanigans can unsettle even the most rocksteady of defences, so make a pre-game note of teams that \u2013 if losing late on \u2013 have this unique skillset to call upon.<\/p>\n
If you wanted to pivot away from betting on late goals, there are still value opportunities available that don\u2019t need the ball to be put in the net. Wagering on late corners \u2013 when you expect the losing team to have plenty of the ball and lay siege towards their opponent\u2019s goal \u2013 as well as other prop bets like shots, shots on target and goal kicks (for the defending team) can also potentially reap rewards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As you may have read in the press, games of football are lasting longer than ever. In days gone by, as soon as the 90 minutes were up, the crowd \u2013 at least, the supporters of the leading team \u2013 would become restless as the referee made furtive glances at their watch. But now, with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"parent":58,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":{"0":"post-2291","1":"page","2":"type-page","3":"status-publish","5":"entry"},"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2291"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2291\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2300,"href":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2291\/revisions\/2300"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/58"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}