{"id":2370,"date":"2024-03-15T20:29:59","date_gmt":"2024-03-15T20:29:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.top10bettingsites.co.uk\/?page_id=2370"},"modified":"2024-03-15T20:29:59","modified_gmt":"2024-03-15T20:29:59","slug":"how-reliable-are-handicap-ratings-in-racing","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.rulesofsport.com\/betting\/horse-racing\/how-reliable-are-handicap-ratings-in-racing\/","title":{"rendered":"How Reliable are Handicap Ratings in Racing?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"HowThe 2024 Cheltenham Festival played host to many interesting stories \u2013 not least the miraculous resurrection of two of Dan Skelton\u2019s horses.<\/p>\n

Since winning the Coral Cup in 2023, Langer Dan had finished sixth out of seven, ninth out of eleven, 14th out of 19 and been pulled up at Sandown in his subsequent four outings.<\/p>\n

So you can forgive the bookies for being pessimistic about the horse\u2019s chances in its title defence, but Langer Dan kicked such concerns to the kerb by being prominent throughout in the 2024 edition before powering home<\/a> to win by more than three lengths.<\/p>\n

He carried a handicap of 11st 8lb \u2013 four pounds up on 2023, but down on the 12st he\u2019d laboured with for much of the 2024 season.<\/p>\n

And wouldn\u2019t you just know it, later that afternoon Skelton had another handicap winner<\/a>. Since November, Unexpected Party hadn\u2019t finished any higher than fourth in a series of Grade 2 and Premier Handicap renewals \u2013 come Cheltenham, he was eating up the ground to win the Grand Annual Challenge Cup.<\/p>\n

The horse had carried weights ranging from 10-12 to 11-09 (as well as 11-07 in a Grade 1 outing) during that fruitless portion of the season \u2013 by the time the Festival rolled around, the handicapper had downgraded him to just 10-10.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no insinuation that Skelton has acted fraudulently \u2013 horse racing is an unpredictable sport, and many horses have shown a specific aptitude for Cheltenham over the years while enjoying little success elsewhere.<\/p>\n

But the question remains: how reliable are the handicap ratings in racing?<\/p>\n

The Ratings Game<\/h2>\n
\"Richard
Richard Hughes – Ogiyoshisan<\/a>, CC BY-SA 3.0<\/a>, via Wikimedia Commons<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Richard Hughes, a trainer with career prize money to his name to the tune of \u00a34 million, has said what many suspect to be true: some trainers in racing are cheating the handicap system<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe main problem with the way we handicap horses in Britain and Ireland is the system encourages people to cheat,\u201d Hughes has written. \u201cThat’s what it does and I think most people can see that’s what it does.\u201d<\/p>\n

Getting a horse\u2019s rating down, with a view to entering it into big races of a lower grade down the line, is not uncommon \u2013 with plenty of tactics available to those wishing to play the system.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are ways of getting down to the sort of rating you want,\u201d Hughes confirms. \u201cOne might be that a horse goes to the race after spending more time on a walker than on the gallops. That horse therefore arrives at the races a little like me \u2013 bigger around the belly than he should be and short of peak fitness.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople can easily play the system. They might be staying within the rules but outside of the spirit of the rules.\u201d<\/p>\n

One trainer who didn\u2019t stay within the rules was Ronan McNally, who was found guilty of stopping his horses from running to their best in order to secure a lower handicap rating in the future.<\/p>\n

The Irishman was banned for 12 years<\/a> for not running his horses to their true merit, with the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board alleging that associates of McNally would then financially benefit by betting on these horses in subsequent handicap races.<\/p>\n

Sir Mark Prescott, the Newmarket-based trainer, has been forced on numerous occasions to deny that he cheats<\/a> the handicap system \u2013 despite a number of his runners winning while unfancied, based on previous form, over the years.<\/p>\n

\n

A Sir Mark Prescott masterclass! ????<\/p>\n

True Legend had form figures of 650 in novice races last year but, up in trip and into handicaps this term he’s now won two on the spin.@Luke_Morris88<\/a> took this race by the scruff of the neck a long way out.@salisburyraces<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/cO94tpYyPI<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Racing TV (@RacingTV) May 18, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n