If you’re looking for a couple of football betting markets with a difference, then wagering on either a) the next manager to be sacked, or b) who will be appointed as the new boss of a specific club may fit the bill.
There were 14 managerial sackings in the Premier League during the 2022/23 season, while in the EFL there was a staggering 41 sackings between August 2022 and February 2023.
In short, these are betting markets with plenty of opportunities.
There are a couple of different options to explore when it comes to betting on managerial movements, with both requiring a different set of research and insight in order to maximise your chance of a return on your investment.
But, if you know where to look and some of the key patterns that emerge, you will increase you chances when betting on these managerial changes.
Sack Race: Next Manager Sacked Betting
Although limited typically to the English Premier League, you can wager on which manager you think is most likely to be sacked from their job next.
It’s quite a distasteful market, in the sense that somebody will have their livelihood taken away from them, but at the same time football is a cutthroat sport and business – punters have to take the same cold-hearted approach as the board of directors that hand their bosses their P45.
Here’s a look at the Oddschecker grid for Next Manager to Be Sacked at the time of writing:
Unsurprisingly, the leading candidates were those managing struggling teams – either those embroiled in a relegation battle, or those failing to meet their expectations.
So where does the best of the betting value lie?
There’s a few areas of interest that should be considered by punters:
- How bad, realistically, is the team performing?
- What point of the season is it, i.e. is there time for fortunes to be reversed?
- How long has the manager been in charge?
- Can the club afford to pay compensation?
- What is the club’s record on sacking their managers?
- Is there a viable replacement currently available?
There are certain chairmen/boards of directors in football that are notoriously sack-happy – they won’t bat an eyelid at having to pay the compensation fee to a sacked manager, even one that has been in charge for a matter of months. Do your research to identify the most trigger-happy sorts.
It’s surprising how that fear of having to pay compensation can prolong a manager’s reign – at Leicester City during the 2022/23 season, Brendan Rodgers maintained his role despite the Foxes’ poor performances. It was later confirmed that he was, at the time, one of the highest-paid managers in the Premier League.
Therefore, clubs that have fallen on financially hard times may be less likely to sack their manager.
The need to replace a sacked manager is also a considerable factor. If a club cannot immediately source a replacement, there’s a chance they won’t bother firing their incumbent. So, if the boss of a big club is under threat but there’s no elite managers with proven results available, that may secure them a stay of execution – at smaller clubs and those with lower expectations, it is typically easier to find a manager relative to their aspirations.
Also, consider the stage of the season at that point in time. Is a club sat safely in mid-table in any rush to sack their manager? If the business end of the campaign is approaching, you’re more likely to see decisive action from clubs currently failing to achieve their objectives – for example, a top-four finish, or those in dire trouble of suffering relegation.
Next Permanent Manager Betting
There are generally two types of Next Permanent Manager betting markets available. The first is a club who is actively seeking a new boss, while the second is a more speculative play on who will be the next manager of a role that is currently filled: i.e. next England manager or next Manchester City boss.
That second option is much more difficult to bet on – we simply don’t know when the incumbent manager will leave their post, so it’s perhaps savvier to focus on the first of the markets instead.
When a club sacks a manager, they will typically start their search for a replacement immediately – the caveat is where they appoint a temporary caretaker who gets instant, positive results. In that scenario, the caretaker themselves can be the best betting option in this market; particularly if they have an obvious connection with their players and fans.
Our first port of call in our research is to consider what type of manager that the club’s decision-maker has previously gone for. Do they go for largely unheralded managers from continental Europe or father afield? Do they stick with experienced English bosses? Do they have a record of looking to the lower leagues for their new leader?
Once we have built up a profile, it’s worth remembering again that a club will have to pay compensation for a manager that is currently employed – do they have the finances to do so? Or are they hamstrung by a lack of money and therefore have to appoint a boss that is currently out of work?
Now we can tap deeper into the minutiae. Any chairperson or director at a football club worth their salt should have an identity and a philosophy in mind of how they want their team to play – defensive and conservative? Attacking and expansive? Possession heavy? Counter attacking? A little old school with physicality and route one football?
When we have answered these questions, we really can start to narrow down the field of contenders displayed on the Oddschecker grid for that particular vacant position. Of course, a chairperson can change their modus operandi and go completely against the grain, but – like most human beings – they tend to be creatures of habit and seek out those who fit their time-served pattern.
The challenge with this betting market is to move quickly, because managerial appointments tend to take a matter of days for the most part. Move swiftly with your research, but do your homework as this may just prove to be the difference-maker in your Sack Race and Next Permanent Manager bets.